Florida’s population is still growing because it draws in immigrants from around the country, but state economists predict that as the large number of people who have been relocating to Florida in recent years age, the state’s population growth will slow down.
The state’s estimated population in April was 22,634,867, according to a report released this week by the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. This represents an increase of roughly 359,000 individuals, or 1.61 percent, from the same month last year.
The number of Americans relocating to Florida from other states was “the highest number it’s ever been,” according to Stefan Rayer, director of the population program at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. This contributed to the surge.
“The state’s population is still expanding rapidly. “It’s been really remarkably strong if you compare long-term averages, which have been just under 300,000, but it’s been slightly more than the year before,” Rayer stated during the meeting on November 28 that resulted in this week’s report.
According to population forecasts until 2028, growth may start to slow down. After peaking at 1.37 percent in 2025, 1.36 percent in 2026, 1.24 percent in 2027, and 1.18 percent in 2028, the growth rate is predicted to drop to 1.51 percent the following year.
During that time, the population would grow by an average of roughly 300,000 people annually, even if the rate would slow. In a memo to senators dated November 9, Senate President Kathleen Passidomo brought that to their attention, indicating measures to try to satisfy projected demand through systemic changes to the health care system.
“In fact, our projections indicate that our population will increase by about 300,000 newcomers annually, or more than 800 each day, over the course of the next five years. That would be akin to building a city every year that is bigger than St. Petersburg but somewhat smaller than Orlando, according to Passidomo.
Examining who has been relocating to the state is crucial to comprehending the possibility of a decreasing growth rate.
Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the age group of 60 to 69 represented the biggest share of people relocating to Florida from other states in 2022. The age range of 50 to 59 was the second-largest group of migrants to Florida.
During the meeting on November 28, Margaret Snyder, a spokesperson from the office of Governor Ron DeSantis, stated that those between the ages of 20 and 39 “have consistently not shown the same desire to move to Florida.” According to Snyder, a shift may be on the horizon since inhabitants between the ages of 50 and 69 have been the main force behind residents transferring from other states.
We have mainly depended on the elderly population, particularly those between the ages of 50 and 70, when it comes to domestic migration. We anticipate that these numbers will begin to fall in the coming years, or at the very least, not expand at the rates we’ve seen over the last five years, as baby boomers prepare to leave this age group, according to Snyder.
State analysts predict that if that pattern holds true, the yearly growth rate may fall below 1 percent in the 2030s.
“As the last baby boomer cohorts begin to retire, the decade’s end will continue to represent a turning moment. After that, annual growth falls below 1.00%, according to the report’s executive summary.
