Due to months of unexpectedly low tax revenues, California’s budget deficit has soared to a record $68 billion; this shortfall could force the state to implement its most severe expenditure cuts since the Great Recession.
The most recent deficit estimate, which was published on Thursday and was computed by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, significantly surpasses the $14.3 billion figure projected in June. The deficit, which is the greatest in monetary value but not in proportion to total expenditures, has the potential to disrupt the forthcoming legislative year by compelling Governor Gavin Newsom and legislators to implement spending reductions of a magnitude not previously encountered by term-limited elected officials in Sacramento.
State budget analysts stated that although the deficit remains, California has alternatives to deal with it that it did not have in prior downturns, such as using cash reserves, making one-time spending cutbacks, and altering how it pays education.
Reporters were informed by LAO analyst Gabriel Petek that “the state remains in a good cash position, and that really wasn’t the case back at the start of the Great Recession.” “I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a crisis because we don’t have the same kinds of liquidity issues that we did then.”
Education now joins the list of potential targets for reductions that also includes health care and the environment, with the LAO projecting a $4 billion reduction in the amount of funding the state is required to pay to schools and community colleges under Proposition 98.
Analysts proposed that lawmakers use one-time cuts, lower school spending, or draw from the approximately $30 billion in reserves to alleviate the problem. The legislative leadership attempted to use its savings from the previous year, but Newsom objected, so the funds were left alone. Given the magnitude of the shortfall, discussions on the use of reserve funds will probably get more heated in the upcoming year.
Future years’ predicted $30 billion deficits have also been forecast by analysts. To assist offset those potential deficits, the LAO suggested keeping up to half of the state’s reserves in place.
The deadlines for reporting taxes in the majority of California were postponed from April to last month, which prevented experts from seeing how much money was available. They predicted that revenue would fall $58 billion short of prior estimates after witnessing cash receipts, which fueled the enormous deficit.
Earlier this year, Newsom’s Department of Finance issued a warning that inflation, rising interest rates, and stock market drops will cause California to continue to see a reduction in revenue.
Following the release of the LAO forecasts, the department’s spokesman, H.D. Palmer, said in a statement that “both the Governor and the Legislature face a significant challenge with the 2024 budget.” When the Governor submits his proposal to the Legislature the following month, the Administration will lay out its strategy to close the budget deficit.
Talks on how to handle the financial issue will begin after Newsom’s budget proposal is made public. After years of enormous surpluses, a lower deficit last year compelled the governor to make the biggest cuts of his term. By postponing expenditure and transferring monies between the state’s general and special budgets, the state was able to avoid making further cuts.
“We still have a strong economy, but we must exercise extreme caution,” Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins stated in a conversation. “We will have to slow down new programs, new spending, and in fact, existing spending over time because we are in a deficit.”
California might choose to move money to bonds, further postpone expenditure, or make certain funding contingent on revenue growth in order to make up for some of the cuts. However, with mental health on the March ballot and plans for education, climate change, and housing on the November ballot, there is already fierce rivalry for bond funding.
The stock market has begun to rebound, and if that keeps up by resulting in higher capital gains taxes, California’s deficit may decrease. It would also demonstrate the financial soundness of a few of the businesses that generate revenue for the state.
Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas’ budget director, Jason Sisney, stated earlier this week on LinkedIn that “stock prices are important leading indicators for future #CABudget revenues, and the indicators are up.”
However, it won’t be evident how much or whether those trends would reduce the state deficit until later in the year, when Newsom releases revised budgetary estimates and deficit predictions in May.
